Who will win im a celebrity (1)

Who Will Win ‘I’m a Celebrity’ 2019, Based on the Data

Carly MacDonnell 3 weeks ago

I’m A Celebrity… Get Me Out of Here! has been airing since 2002, previously running twice a year. It soon moved to a yearly recurrence, and features celebrities from all kinds of backgrounds. From musicians to sports stars, many have entered the jungle, and celebs from all career paths have been crowned king or queen.

It’s a hugely important show for ITV and a whole host of brands, especially as companies crank up the volume in their Christmas campaigns.

In recent years, it started to look like reality stars were taking over for the top spot, but they were soon replaced with Harry Redknapp who is the reigning king. It seems Harry was in quite a good position to take home the crown too, with sports stars often finding themselves victorious Down Under.

So who is most likely to win this year? ITV released the line-up for their 2019 series, and some of the names they’ve landed a deal with are the biggest yet.

We’ll be seeing Caitlyn Jenner, Myles Stephenson, Kate Garraway, Jacqueline Jossa, Ian Wright, Nadine Coyle, Roman Kemp, James Haskell, Adele Roberts and Andrew Maxwell enter the jungle this weekend.

We’ve collected the statistics - we like doing this sort of thing - and looked for any trends to keep an eye on...

How much can your career impact your success?

In all 18 series, the winners’ occupations have been fairly distributed, but musicians have tended to thrive. They hold 28% of the winners’ crowns, with five winners having a career in music. That is great news for Myles Stephenson, Nadine Coyle and Adele Roberts. The odds are in their favour to take home the crown, but they’re closely followed by the show’s sports stars, with 23% of the titles won by sporting contestants. Ian Wright and James Haskell both have a sporting background, and will be looking to follow in Harry Redknapp’s footsteps.

Tied at 17% are both reality stars and actors, with three winners in each category in the past. However, could the only reason a reality star didn’t bag the win last year be because there wasn’t one in the series? In 2015, Vicky Pattison paved the way for reality success, with Scarlett Moffatt and Georgia Toffolo following in 2016 and 2017 as Queens of the Jungle. If reality stars keep up their winning streak, it’s looking like Keeping Up With The Kardashians star Caitlyn Jenner could be a good bet to do well this time around.

However, it seems that Caitlyn has even more opportunity to take her to the top. Although she’s a reality star to many, she was also a well known Olympian so might be able to bring the best of both worlds.

Historically, musicians, sports stars, actors and reality stars stand a good chance, while chefs, journalists and comedians only have a success rate of 5%.

Unfortunately for Kate Garraway and Roman Kemp, no TV presenter has ever won the series, so it’s not looking positive for the pairing.

careers on I'm a celebrity

What else can make someone a successful contestant?

Age, hair colour and gender can make all the difference when it comes to the final.

Brunettes statistically do better than blondes - with a 44% success rate compared to 39% for blondes. Gender, however, is the biggest factor.

hair colours of I'm a celeb winners

On average, men hold the monopoly on I’m A Celeb with a 61% winning ratio, while women have only emerged victorious in 39% of series.

male female split on I'm a celeb

However, age is also important. The average age of a female winner is 29 and EastEnders actress Jacqueline Jossa is the closest to this, at just 27 years old. Meanwhile, the average winning age for a man is 41, which this season’s Andrew Maxwell is close to at just 44 years old.

average age of I'm a celeb winners

Can social media make a difference?

It’s no secret that having a good relationship with your followers on social media can make a big impact. For Vicky Pattison, Scarlett Moffatt and Georgia Toffolo, as reality stars, a relationship with their followers is vital - it’s what launches reality stars into wider success and makes them attractive for many big brands as they craft campaigns. Most musicians have a strong relationship with their followers too.

Caitlyn Jenner may have the most Instagram followers of anyone to ever go on I’m A Celeb, with a whopping 9.4million. Combined with the followers of her daughters and step daughters, it’s likely the Kardashian/Jenner clan are going to be playing a key part in promoting Caitlyn’s stay in the jungle. With votes likely to be rolling in for Caitlyn to both do the bushtucker trials and to stay in the competition, it’s likely she stands a good chance of enjoying success.

Who will do the first bushtucker trial?

The first bushtucker trial of the season - watching the campmates squirm and scream - is a bit of a guilty pleasure for all viewers. But which celeb is the most likely to be voted the one to tackle the first trial? We looked into the past seasons at the first public vote bushtucker trial, to take a guess at who will be the poor unfortunate soul that has to suffer first.

In the 27 people who were voted by the public to compete in the first trial, 17 were women, and 10 were men - making it a 63% chance it will be a woman voted by the public to do it.

The average age of all the individuals who’ve done the first trial, is 39. Adele and Nadine are looking likely here, being females aged 34 and 39 respectively.

In terms of occupation, 18% of the previous ‘first triallers’ were actors. Next most likely occupations are singer and reality stars, 14% apiece. Jacqueline Jossa could fit the bill as the only actress in the mix but, at 27, she’s a bit younger than the average age. Similarly, Caitlyn Jenner is also a reality star, but is over the age bracket by 31 years.

There are more reasons why Caitlyn could be in the firing line. Reality stars, ex sports stars, and, on occasion, older celebs have been selected by the public (think of Lady Colin Campbell, Freddie Starr, and Kim Woodburn). So, unless a younger reality star comes in as a surprise guest before the first public vote trial, it’s looking like Nadine or Caitlyn could be the first target for the public.

There is, however, good news for ladies picked for the first trial. The camp mate who completes this trial usually does very well in the competition.

Historically, five winners and five runners up have completed the first trial. And the average finishing position for those who complete the first trial is 5th place! So Nadine and Caitlyn could be looking at good longevity in the show if they do end up lumbered with the first trial by the public.

who will do the first bushtucker trial

But who is most likely to win?

Myles Stephenson has a high chance of taking home the I’m A Celeb crown this year. With his history as a musician in X Factor winning group Rak-Su - plus the fact he’s a brunette and a man - it’s looking like he’s en route to success in all areas. The only thing holding him back is his age - as a 28 year old, the average age for a male winner is 41.

James Haskell also has quite a high chance, thanks to his sporting background, hair colour and his gender.

So, who is the leading woman for the series? It’s... Jacqueline Jossa (not Rebekah Vardy’s account this time). As an actress, Jacqueline still has an in-built strong chance of winning, and her hair colour is in her favour too. Although men are in the lead for winning the series, 39% of winners have been women – so she’s still got a strong chance. However, Jacqueline is the closest to the right age for hitting the top spot.

Who won’t be so lucky?

Sadly, it’s not looking good for Kate Garraway as a TV presenter has never won the series. As a blonde woman, she’s already struggling and, with the average female winner being 29, Kate falls short on the age profile of the ideal winner too.

Roman Kemp also has bad luck when it comes to taking the crown. Also a TV presenter, it’s likely he’s not going to see the highest success rate. His brown hair is a plus, but he’s a little young for the average male winner. Aged 26, he’s 15 years off the average winning male age of 41, so it’s unlikely that Roman will be titled King of the Jungle.

So that’s who’s going to win I’m A Celeb if past data trends continue. But who might surprise us and upset the form? Only time will tell…

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